What happened?
On 1 August, Myanmar will complete six months of military rule and deposition of the NLD led government. Reuters, on 1 August, referred to Myanmar's military ruler Min Aung Hlaing promising new multi-party elections. It also quoted him announcing: "Myanmar is ready to work on ASEAN cooperation within the ASEAN framework, including the dialogue with the ASEAN special envoy in Myanmar." 

On 30 July, the UN News referred to a statement issued by UN's top aid official in Myanmar, Acting Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator Ramanathan Balakrishnan saying: "The situation to be characterized by instability and a deteriorating socio-economic and security situation...The UN will continue to call out human rights violations and is committed to stay and deliver lifesaving humanitarian assistance to the people of Myanmar."

On 31 July, a report released by the Human Rights Watch quoted Brad Adams, its Asia Director saying: "Myanmar's junta has responded to massive popular opposition to the coup with killings, torture, and arbitrary detention of people who merely want last year's election results to be respected and a government that reflects the popular will...These attacks on the population amount to crimes against humanity for which those responsible should be brought to account."

What is the background?
First, the consolidation of military rule during the last six months. The coup began on 1 February, when the military junta led by Gen Min Aung Hlaing nullified the November 2020 elections. Ever since, the regime started detaining hundreds of lawmakers, activists, and civil officials. It also started blocking access to various social media, intensifying surveillance, and imposing night blackouts. The regime refused to heed to international requests and warnings. 

Second, the political trial. The detention of Suu Kyi and her top allies brings to a closure the experiment with democracy in Myanmar, which followed a half-century military rule earlier. After the four months of detention, Aung Sang Suu Kyi is under trial by a junta court. She faces a mix of charges that include the following: illegally possessing walkie talkies, flouting of the COVID-19 restrictions during the elections in 2020, causing fear and alarm, unspecified breaches of the 'Official Secrets Act' and accepting USD 600,000 cash and 11 kilograms of gold from a former political ally. 

Third, internal protests and regime repression. Since the coup began, resistance by people began in many forms. Thousands started protesting over the weeks in the cities and villages around Myanmar. This includes blockade and intense confrontations by the journalists, students and the pro-democracy medical staff and public on strike, avoiding the hospitals run by the junta. The regime came down heavily, which led to the casualties being over 900 protestors and several thousand being arbitrarily arrested and detained.

Fourth, the regional response, or the lack of it. In April 2021, the ASEAN, as a part of their Leaders Meeting in Jakarta, announced an ambitious five-point consensus calling for the following: an immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar; a constructive dialogue among all parties concerned; a special envoy to facilitate mediation; provide humanitarian assistance; and a special envoy and delegation to meet with all parties concerned. Three months later this meeting, ASEAN's role remains limited. In July, Singapore's foreign minister, in his response to a Parliamentary question, stated: "We recognise that implementation of the Five-Point Consensus has been slow and a little disappointing." The ASEAN is yet to appoint a special envoy.

Fifth, the international responses. The US has led the international effort to persuade the military administration to reverse course, desist from additional violence, restore the country's democratic route, release all those who have been wrongfully jailed, and hold those responsible for the coup and brutality against the people accountable. But the impact of international response and sanctions remain limited. The UNSC remains divided, with Russia and China backing the military regime in Myanmar.

What does it mean?
First, the regime response so far does not provide a level playing field to those who demand the restoration of democracy. Second, the international response remains ineffective, with limited impact over the sanctions, and also due to the support provided by Russia and China to the regime. Internal developments within Myanmar and the divided and ineffective external responses means the military regime will continue to consolidate its rule.